The
Clubhouse Report
Northern Virginia APBA Baseball
League
End of Regular Season 2014
Congratulations to everyone in finishing the games this
year, and all the help people gave in running two teams who had no
manager. It was a pleasant year working with
so many experienced managers. Overall it
looks like the competition is very even.
We have parity, considering that any given year any team might be at the
top or bottom. I will be putting out
this newsletter now, with my commentary on each team for the regular season,
and analysis of the playoff matchups for the first round. I’ll put out two more playoff oriented
newsletters, prior to the semi-finals and prior to the finals. Then at the end of the year I’ll put out one
covering the championship series, and looking ahead to the free agents in the
draft.
Fianl Standings
W
|
L
|
%
|
GB
|
|
51
|
37
|
.579
|
--
|
|
50
|
38
|
.568
|
1
|
|
50
|
38
|
.568
|
1
|
|
48
|
40
|
.545
|
3
|
|
38
|
50
|
.432
|
13
|
|
38
|
50
|
.432
|
13
|
W
|
L
|
%
|
GB
|
|
52
|
36
|
.591
|
--
|
|
49
|
39
|
.557
|
3
|
|
47
|
41
|
.534
|
5
|
|
40
|
48
|
.455
|
12
|
|
35
|
53
|
.398
|
17
|
|
30
|
58
|
.341
|
22
|
SPR
3
|
at
|
DEL
1
|
CHV
2
|
at
|
OAK
2
|
ARL
3
|
at
|
SEA
1
|
OAK
3
|
at
|
STO
1
|
CHV
2
|
at
|
ARL
2
|
OCC
2
|
at
|
CHV
2
|
DEL
1
|
at
|
CHV
3
|
CHV
4
|
at
|
SEA
0
|
STO
3
|
at
|
STE
1
|
WAS
2
|
at
|
DEL
2
|
CPC
1
|
at
|
ARL
3
|
ARL
1
|
at
|
CHV
3
|
How did things turn out?
Ranked in order of my pre-season predictions, here is a look
at each team, along with their record in October and for the year.
#1 Oakton 5-3, (50-38) The
predictions were a little overblown for the Aviators this year and they
finished 3rd. On paper they can blow you
away when you look at them. But Larry
put out an email on September 23 which shows some of the weaknesses of making
predictions about an offense based solely on OPS. He said the problems are due to not having
good cards to hit and run with combined with lots of 24s on his cards. When guys get on base he says he loses more
opportunities to double plays than most teams do. If double plays were truly a problem you
would expect the main culprits to be Ortiz with 4 double plays on his card, and
Beltre and Cano who each had 3. We see
Ortiz had 11 GDP, Beltre had 8, and Cano had 5.
The surprise is to see that Tulo had 11 even though he only had 2 double
play numbers on his card. It’s hard to
say he had bad luck though because he led the team in home runs with 15 despite
playing in only 75 games and having 1-0-0-0 power. Before I make predictions next year I am
going to put more study into baseball statistics and find something else to
judge position players, such as Wins Above Replacement. Don’t know yet, just a thought, and I’m open
to suggestions.
Maybe Larry had cold dice this year, and they will get hot
in the playoffs.
#2 Stonehenge 4-4, (52-36) The
important thing that Stonehenge did was win the number 1 seed position in the
playoffs this year. The bye
significantly increases the odds of a championship because we have a lot of
parity in the league, so every playoff series comes down to rolling out the
bones and see where they land. He had a
great year. The Druids, are still one of
the more powerful teams in the league and they could win it all. More will be said about them prior to the
semi-finals.
#3 Occoquan 2-2, (35-53)
Occoquan threw in the towel after drafting to compete and before any games were
played. Their manager is a Jekyll and
Hyde character, and is wishy-washy about sticking to goals. The best player was their first round draft
pick, Yan Gomes, who hit 13 home runs and 43 RBIs in 59 games. Without all the trades, who knows, maybe
Occoquan would have finished between 3 and 6, they probably would have come in
2nd in their division.
#4 Springfield 3-1, (51-37)
The Cardinals finished 2nd. A lot of
trades helped this team exceed expectations.
Chris as a field manager is one of the best in the league. One of the things that helps Chris is
splitting series over two nights, so he is on his game and energetic when he is
behind the wheel of this great franchise.
He’s always been the best at creating a playoff atmosphere in every game
and putting more pressure on the opposition than anyone else. Springfield is very competitive and has a
shot at the title. More will be said
about them prior to the semi-finals when we look at the matchups.
#5 Chino Valley 16-8 ,
(47-31) Chino was predicted 5th and finished 6th. This team had the capability of fielding a
lot of power in a lineup, with 8 out of 9 players having ones on a roll of 66. I had pretty good success with Chino playing
in that style, going 10-6 managing them.
#6 Roswell 0-0, (50-38) Bob
finished 4th, tied with Larry but losing the tie breaker. Trading for Fielder improved his team, and
they exceeded expectations. They have a shot
at the title also. It’s a pleasure to
have Bob in the league, and this year he did so much for us above and beyond
the call of duty in helping manage the two teams who needed help and keep the
statistics.
#7 Washington 2-2, (40-48)
The Senators Finished in 8th place and will be able to draft in the
#5 position. Early on they were
competing to make the playoffs but near the end tossed in the towel. They will still be in the playoffs due to us
having two above .500 teams without a manager.
Bart says Oakton is going to feast on them. That’s probably right, it would take hot dice
and cold Oakton dice in order for Washington to win in the first round.
Thanks also to Bart for helping out so much with the two
teams who needed help.
#8 Sterling 1-3, (48-40) Sterling
was predicted 8th and finished in 6th. The trades during the year turned them into a
contender with a shot at the title.
There is strong hitting here, ok starting pitching, and strong
bullpen. Walt is one of the best in the
league at field management, but due to life situations will sometimes struggle
when he has to play late, late, at night and is exhausted. Let’s hope he is well rested for the playoff
series and is able to feel great about the job he did this year when all is
done, win or lose.
#9 Arlington 9-7, (49-39) Arlington
finished 5th. When I put
together their lineup as a guest manager it looked like they had good power and
good pitching. Their low 3.37 ERA and
league leading 114 home runs confirm this as being true. There was a pretty big disparity between
where I thought they would end up and where they ended up, so I must not have
recognized the fine bats they had as much as I should have in my pre-season
analysis.
#10 Delphi 4-8, (38-50) Delphi
tied with Columbia Pike for 9th.
For much of the year they were in the hunt for the playoffs, and after
they made trades to throw in the towel, dropped like a rock.
Thank you to George for keeping a steady hand at the helm of
this league and providing much wisdom and guidance.
#11 Columbia Pike 1-3, (38-50)
Finished tied with Delphi for 9th.
Kept the draft picks and looking forward to next year. It is a pleasure to have Steve in the
league. When I play against Steve and
Bob I often reflect about how lucky we were as a league the year these two
joined, and how bad off we would be without them.
#12 Seacoast 1-7, (30-58) Just
as predicted Seacoast won the Hamner trophy.
The main reason for this was not having high enough grades on the
pitching staff to win games. The
Wayfarers had an ERA of 4.40. Of the 8
teams that have emailed 88 game stats to the league, the next highest ERA was
Occoquan at 4.08. In home runs Seacoast
ranked next to last with 67, while Occoquan had the lowest with 30. The highest was Arlington with 114, then
Oakton with 112.
This is going to be a very tough choice for Chad with the
number one pick. Does he go for hitting
or starting pitching? Already having 3
of the top bats in the league for next year with McCutchen, Trout, and Stanton,
having a solid first base card in LaRoche, will he go for Jose Abreu as a
DH? Or might he trade LaRoche and use
Abreu at 1B? Or will he go with starting
pitching? The best card appears to be
Kluber with a high projected grade of 16xyzg and high availability and age of
28. Or will he go with a younger up and
coming starting pitcher with a good card and lower age as many of the past high
picks in our draft have been? Or will he
trade the #1 pick to multiply it and get 2 or 3 really good picks or players in
return?
I want to give a special thanks to Chad for providing back
up leadership to the league when George was travelling, and for keeping the web
site up to date for us all. A job well-done
Chad!
Transactions
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2014 Playoff Anaylsis
Many thanks for Chris in providing a timely and helpful
spreadsheet used to look at the cards of the players that are on the playoff
rosters. In this look when I mention
results the statistics are coming from the 88 game reports from this year in
the NVABL. I will attempt to match up
similar types of pitchers and go through the position players one position at a
time, and keep a running tally of who wins each matchup. At the end we will see who has won more
matchups and predict who wins the series and how many games it takes them to
win it. I’ll leave the teams with a bye
out of it, and save those for additional newsletters when the time comes for
them.
First Round Washington at Oakton
Starting Pitchers
Washington brings Fernandez
18xyg righty with 3.24 ERA, Scherzer 16xy righty, Thornburg 14yh righty, and Gray
13xg righty.
Oakton brings Kershaw 19xzg lefty 13-3 with 2.95 ERA,
Sanchez 16xyg righty 8-5 with 2.89 ERA, Hernandez 13xzg righty 7-5 with 3.07
ERA, and Jimenez 14xw righty 5-4 with 5.96 ERA
For the top 3 pitchers the matchups are basically even. The advantage Kershaw would have over Fernandez
in a game 1 matchup would be negated by him being a lefty and I would grade
them even. Gray would have a slight
advantage over Jimenez in a game 4 matchup because of the w. I’ll score this as 1 for Washington and 3
ties. The score is 1-0-3 for Washington.
Relief pitchers
RP Jansen 19kxz righty vs. Holland 24kxg righty with 0.77
ERA and 18 saves Advantage Oakton because the grade that far
past 20 puts Holland into a whole different class than Jansen. Oakton evens it up at 1-1-3.
RP Cotts 24xyh lefty with 0.00 ERA vs. Siegrist 29kwg lefty
with 1.40 ERA Advantage Washington, both are lefties and well north of grade
20. The h saves more runs than the g, and
the w might create 4 or 5 outs in an inning and give Washington an undeserved
run or two. I would prefer to have Cotts
on my team, which makes the score 2-1-3 in favor of Washington.
RP Kintzler 14yzh righty vs. Romo 14xz righty with 3.09 ERA.
In the battle of the z’s this is an even enough matchup. I count this as a tie and the score is 2-1-4
Washington.
RP Wilson 19ywg lefty vs. Lopez 16xzh lefty with 3.57 ERA Advantage Oakton, zh beats wg and the grades
are not that far apart to make up for it.
Oakton evens the count up at 2-2-4.
RP Gregerson 13xzg righty vs. Casilla 19ywg righty EVEN
matchup, a 19 can be much more effective than a 13 but the w vs. the z brings
it back and neither one has a clear advantage.
Some might disagree with me on this but I just don’t like w’s and I like
z’s. That’s why I traded Nathan to get
Storen rather than Casilla. My mistake
was not using him to get Tyson Ross when that small window was open. The window slammed shut and Ross finished the
season strong.
Back to the analysis, the totals for the pitchers I score as
2-2-5. The Washington staff can hold
their own vs. Oakton with a score of 2-2 with 5 ties.
Position players
C Molina C9T6 1/-2 and Wieters C9T6 6/-4 vs. Lucroy C8T-1
2/-2 and McCann C8T0 -10/2 Advantage
Washington. These catchers destroy
whatever small running game Oakton might have had, and their bats are pretty
good. Wieters split vs. lefties might be
a factor vs. Kershaw. He might be starting
in those games. Either way,catcher’s
defense is important in this game and C9 can be a difference maker over C8, as
often as 22s, rare plays, team rolls, and infield rolls happen. Lucroy and McCann’s bats are good, but I’m
scoring this 3-2-5 in favor of Washington.
1B 1B5 Gonzalez -3/0 vs. Moss or Ortiz and Napoli
platoon. The 1B5 counts for a lot and the
double ones count for a lot, so that is even, but Moss might need to play OF
because Oakton only has one that can hit vs. the 4 righties that Bart will be
starting. If Ortiz plays vs. righties it
weakens the DH position, so this is basically Gonzalez vs. Napoli and I would
choose Gonzalez. Still the difference is
not huge, Napoli has a good card, and with the additional flexibility Oakton
has with those two other players, I am calling this even. The score is 3-2-6 in favor of Washington.
2B Altuve and Infante vs. Cano. Too bad Altuve isn’t able to bring next
year’s card. He is 2B-7 with 1/-2
splits, 0-6 power, and 9 second column ones.
Infante is a 2B7 who doesn’t have a 1 on 66 and won’t do much with 0-0-0
power and 8 second column ones. Cano’s
2B8 with 1-0-0-0 power is one of the best 2B cards in the league so I give this
one to Oakton. 3-3-6 evens up the score.
3B Arenado and Johnson vs. Beltre. Johnson has some pop with 0-6-6 power and 24
second column ones but Beltre has 1-5-6 power and is one of the better 3B cards
in the league. He led the Aviators with
47 RBIs. 4-3-6 in favor of Oakton.
SS Peralta and Drew are SS8 and could platoon vs. Tulowitzki. They both have 0-0-0-0 power. Once again we see middle infielders who can’t
field well and can’t hit with much power, this time vs. a 1-0-0-0 guy who hit
15 home runs and 40 RBIs along with being an SS-9. 5-3-6 in favor of Oakton.
OF Washington brings Ellsbury, Fowler, Jackson, Pence, and
Ross. Oakton brings Braun, Cuddyer,
Raburn, Upton, and Moss. Both teams
bring 2 OF3s and 3 OF2s that can hit.
Both have mixed splits. Ellsburys
D-35 could be a difference maker in game situations that could be used vs.
Oakton’s relatively weak catchers arms, so I’m giving a point to
Washington. There is a lot more home
runs on the Oakton side, and slightly better on base numbers, so I’m giving 2
points to Oakton. So I would give 2 out
of 3 outfield points to Oakton. 7-4-6 in
favor of Oakton.
DH Trumbo vs. Ortiz.
1 more point in favor of Oakton.
Ortiz is one of the best. He had
an OPS of .837 in 258 plate appearances for the Aviators. I score this 8-4-6 in favor of Oakton.
Extra players on the roster, we could call this Simon vs.
Prado or Robinson. Robinson is a
defensive sub to give Oakton 3 OF3s.
Simon is a grade 14 righty. Prado
brings little to the table except a +4 vs. lefties. His .866 OPS in only 89 plate appearances
means he is only used against lefties normally.
Washington’s lefties are high graded so his OPS would be more like .668
in the playoffs. This is an even
exchange between the 3 of them. The
final score count is 8-4-7 in favor of Oakton.
Summary: Oakton’s bats are much better than Washington’s and
the pitching is about even which is a real complement to Washington to be able
to hang with one of the best staffs in the league if not the best. I would predict Oakton advances in 5. It won’t be the cake walk that Bartoli is
moaning about in his emails, but Oakton should advance never the less.
First Round Sterling vs. Roswell
Starting Pitchers
SP Weaver 11yz righty vs Greinke 16y righty. Advantage goes to Roswell . 1-0-0 for Roswell.
SP Bumgarner 14x lefty vs. Cobb 14x righty. This is pretty even. Roswell doesn’t hit all that great against
lefties. 1-0-1 for Roswell
SP Fister 10zg righty vs. Cosart 17wg righty. I think the difference in grades is big
enough to give Roswell the advantage when we are talking about it being a
starting pitcher that has the w. It
seems to be safer for starters, the situations are less crucial in the early
innings. 2-0-1 for Roswell.
SP Sale 12xz lefty vs. Gonzalez 13xw lefty. Advantage goes to Sterling on this one
because of the Z vs. W. 2-1-1 for
Roswell
Relief Pitchers
Nathan 23xyh righty vs. Benoit 19xyg This matchup is won by Nathan. The score is 2-2-1.
Chapman 17kxyw lefty vs. Loup 15yzg lefty, I would rather
have Loup on my playoff roster, wouldn’t you?
The score is 3-2-1 in favor of Roswell.
Papelbon 13xz righty vs. Street 14yzm. I would rather have Papelbon because of the M
that Street has. There will be certain
matchups and boards where the M would be safe but Papelbon would have no such limits
to when he can be used. This ties the
score at 3-3-1.
Cook 15xh righty vs. Ziegler 16zg righty. Ziegler wins this matchup for Roswell. The score is 4-3-1 in favor of Roswell.
Thielbar 19xz lefty vs. Torres 21xyh lefty. The z evens up the grade difference and the h
in my way of thinking, so I would rate this matchup as even. The score is 4-3-2 in favor of Roswell at the
end of the pitching analysis.
Position Players
C Mauer C9T6 -2/-1 with strong bat vs. Pierzynski C8T3 -1/-1
with 1-6-6 power but far less OBP, he had .289 for the season and OPS of .694. The defense is important here. Sterling is
bringing 2 lefty starters so Bob is facing a tough choice to us Navarro with
10/-5 but defensively drops to C7T0.
Navarro’s OPS was a respectable .759 in 108 plate appearances, probably
mostly vs. lefties. I would grade these
matchups as an advantage for Sterling, mainly because of the defense. The score is tied at 4-4-2.
1B Rizzo -7/1 1B4 1-0-0-0 vs. Fielder -1/-1 1B3 1-6-6. Rizzo’s weakness vs. lefties and no platoon
mate would make me rather have Fielder in the playoffs. Walt’s tight fistedness to make a trade and
fill this hole could bite him in the playoffs.
This is nearly an even matchup because of the 1B4, but I would give
Roswell 1 point advantage in the 1B position.
The score is 5-4-2 in favor of Roswell.
2B Sterling brings a platoon of 2B-7 players. Kipnis is 0/-2 with 0-0-6 power and 16 2nd
column ones. Rutledge is -6/1 with 0-0
power and 14 2nd column ones.
Kipnis has 14 on base numbers so he may be used against some of the
righties and have a better matchup.
Those double zeros with a lot of second column ones presents decent
power. Roswell’s platoon is also 2B-7
with Lowrie having -1/-1 splits 0-0-0-0 power with 7 ones. Utley is -5/0 with 1-4-6 power. Lowrie’s OPS this year was .842 and Utley’s
was .678. Both had more than 200 plate
appearances. This is close but if we say
Kipnis and Lowrie are even then we can say surely Utley is better than
Rutledge. Rutledge only has 11 on base
numbers vs. 13 for Utley. I will give a
point to Roswell and that makes the score 6-4-2 in favor of Roswell.
3B The Pirates own the 3B position with Cabrera, 1-1-5-6
power, 15 on base numbers. Donnie Murphy
can match the 1-1-5-6 power, but has only 12 on base numbers, he might be the
DH. Chase headley has 14 on base numbers
with -1/-1 splits and 3B-4. He has 0-0-0
power. He is a good player and looks
like the everyday 3B for Roswell.
Advantage goes to Sterling and that makes the score 6-5-2 in favor of
Roswell.
SS Sterling brings Elvis Andrus with 0-0 power and no home
runs to speak of, SS8, 1/-2, D-32. Roswell
brings Ian Desmond with 1-0-0-0 power, SS8, and -2/-1 splits. This is an advantage for Roswell and the score
is 7-5-2 in favor of Roswell.
OF Sterling brings 4 outfielders, the big three are Cargo
OF3, Bruce OF3, and Dickerson OF2.
Roswell brings 7 outfielders, so more platoons which will be useful
against the 2 lefty and 2 righty starter combination of Sterling. Cargo is the best from both teams and
probably in the entire league. He is
OF3, -4/0, 1-1-0-0-0 14 on base numbers, and D-34.There are 3 Outfielders on
Roswell that have double ones, but one of them is Gattis, an OF1 who I’ll look
at in the DH comparison. The best of the
bunch for Roswell would be Baker who is OF2 6/-18, 1-1-6-6, and 14 on base
numbers. This can be verified when you
look at his OPS for Roswell this year, 1.022 in 128 plate appearances. The next best was Soriano at .823 in 118
plate appearances. Roswell platooned the
outfielders a lot this year. Brantley
has the most plate appearances with only 203.
I’ll give Sterling two points and Roswell 1 point for the
outfields. The tally goes up to 8-7-2 in
favor of Roswell.
DH Sterling brings a platoon of Martinez and Valencia. Martinez has -4/0 splits with 0-0-0 power and
14 on base numbers. Valencia has 6/-13
splits with 1-5-5-6 power and 13 on base numbers. Roswell brings Murphy with 4/-3 splits,
1-1-5-6 power and 12 on base numbers, or Gattis with 1/-2 splits with 1-1-6-6
power and only 11 on base numbers. For
the double ones, I’m giving this point to Roswell. The count is now 9-7-2 in favor of Roswell.
Extra players on the roster:
Sterling has 2 additional relief pitchers, Rosenthal a 15kyg righty and
Ross a 12yzg lefty. Roswell has the
extra outfielders and more double ones.
With 4 of 7 games potentially being National League, I think Roswell is
going to be stunted in flexibility with only 5 relievers. They will be platooning more than
Sterling. I think the relief pitching
will do more for Sterling and would give 1 more point to Sterling making the
final tally 9-8-2.
Summary, with only 2 even matchups, these teams are very
different, it will be a dynamic series with bigger swings in momentum. I’ll predict that Roswell advances in a hard
fought 7 games. If you disagree with me
on the Rizzo vs. Fielder comparison and call it even then this series is a coin
toss. If you say Rizzo would be better
than Fielder, you could say that Sterling advances in 7. It should be a fun series.
Thanks for another great season
I want to thank you all for the work and service you put in
this year. I learned one thing I hadn’t
realized before, that it is much more important to have the RIGHT men managing
these teams than for every team to have a manager. It was my first time without all 12 teams
having a manager, if you don’t count the year Bart remained the manager of
Washington but was unable to play any games.
I hope we will go forward and not settle for any managers who only
represent a breathing body but make little effort to participate in the league
and enjoy the experience. I’ve learned
it is better to go without managers than to have someone only half
managing. For one thing it’s a lot
easier to get the games in with substitutes on a voluntary basis than to try
and schedule with a guy who doesn’t answer his emails. At the same time, go easy if you need to,
don’t take on too much responsibility and don’t let yourself be overwhelmed
next year if you need a rest for a little while. Someone will come forward and pick up the
slack, you can count on that. It was a
great year, I was happy to be part of it.
This game is a lot of fun, and I have a lot of respect for you guys. Thanks.
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