The
Clubhouse Report
Northern Virginia APBA Baseball
League
October 2014
The Standings
W
|
L
|
%
|
GB
|
|
48
|
36
|
.571
|
--
|
|
50
|
38
|
.568
|
--
|
|
45
|
35
|
.563
|
1
|
|
47
|
37
|
.559
|
1
|
|
34
|
42
|
.447
|
10
|
|
37
|
47
|
.440
|
11
|
W
|
L
|
%
|
GB
|
|
48
|
32
|
.600
|
--
|
|
40
|
32
|
.556
|
6
|
|
31
|
33
|
.484
|
9
|
|
38
|
46
|
.452
|
13
|
|
33
|
51
|
.393
|
17
|
|
29
|
51
|
.363
|
19
|
CHV 0
|
at
|
SPR 4
|
ROS 3
|
at
|
CHV 1
|
ARL 2
|
at
|
STP 2
|
ARL 2
|
at
|
OAK 2
|
STO 2
|
at
|
CHV 2
|
ARL 1
|
at
|
SPR 3
|
CPC 2
|
at
|
DEL 2
|
ROS 2
|
at
|
CPC 2
|
WAS 0
|
at
|
OCC 4
|
CPC 3
|
at
|
OAK 1
|
SPR 1
|
at
|
STP 3
|
DEL 0
|
at
|
SEA 4
|
OAK 2
|
at
|
ROS 2
|
SPR 1
|
at
|
CHV 3
|
OCC 0
|
at
|
ARL 4
|
OCC 3
|
at
|
SEA 1
|
STP 1
|
at
|
WAS 3
|
OAK 3
|
at
|
CHV 1
|
STP 4
|
at
|
SPR 0
|
CHV 2
|
at
|
DEL 2
|
SEA 3
|
at
|
CHV 1
|
CHV 3
|
at
|
CPC 1
|
ARL 3
|
at
|
CPC 1
|
OAK 2
|
at
|
STP 2
|
ARL 3
|
at
|
WAS 1
|
WAS 4
|
at
|
ROS 0
|
STP 3
|
at
|
SEA 1
|
CPC 2
|
at
|
CHV 2
|
Who’s Hot and Who’s Not
We are approaching the end and have the possibility of a finish
with 4 teams tied for first place in the Coastal Division. The records for the teams during September
are:
Sterling 15-9, (47-37) For
the 2nd month in a row, the best team was Sterling. Good job to Walt for turning the season
around, both in games and in wins.
Sterling has gone 28-16 since the trade deadline, a .636 winning
percentage that would translate into a 103 win season in the MLB. Sterling has become a powerhouse with those trades. They
are 1 game out of first place, but with only 4 games to play, against the
mighty Stonehenge Druids. The Pirates
have clinched a playoff spot.
Arlington 15-9, (40-32) Arlington
had a great month and the games don’t matter except for who they beat or split
with. They beat Occoquan, Columbia Pike,
and Washington. They split with Oakton
and Sterling. They lost to Springfield.
Seacoast 9-7, (29-51) So
Chad is 17-15 in the last two months. I
played him again and saw the weak starting pitching he is forced to roll out
and it is a wonder he played two months above .500 with it. I give cudos to Chad for winning some series
now. He is still in the driver’s seat
for the number 1 pick.
Occoquan 7-5, (33-51) Occoquan
slogged through 3 series and had a winning record due to a 3-1 result vs.
Seacoast. The Ospreys have been
eliminated from the playoffs.
Chino Valley 15-21 , (31-33)
Again meaningless games except vs. the opponents. Chino beat the Cubs 5-3. They split with the Druids and Oracles. They lost to Springfield 3-5, and they lost
to Roswell, Oakton, and Seacoast 1-3.
Oakton 10-10, (45-35) These
20 games were a let-down. If the
Columbia Pike series had gone 3-1 instead of 1-3, Oakton would be in first
place. Regardless, they are within
striking distance of first place at 1 game behind with 8 left to play. If Oakton went 5-3 it would fall into place
for the nightmare scenario of 4 teams tied for first to come true. Looking at the schedule, Oakton will play
Chino Valley and Stonehenge to close out the season. To go 6-2 vs. those teams will require some
serious dice. To clinch some kind of
playoff spot, Oakton’s magic number is 1.
A win or a loss by Delphi will do it, as Oakton holds the tie-break over
Delphi 5-3.
Washington 8-8, (38-46) The
Senators have clinched the 6th seed in the playoffs. They did what they needed to do.
Stonehenge 2-2, (48-32) Stonehenge
has not clinched the division title, but with Arlington being a manager-less
team the Druids have clinched a first round bye. Remaining on the schedule are Oakton and
Sterling, so Dwight’s team will do a lot to determine the winner of the Coastal
division.
Columbia Pike 11-13, (37-47)
In the second half of the month, the Cubs caused chaos at the top of the
Coastal division by splitting with Roswell, beating Oakton, and Beating
Springfield. If any of those teams would
have won 1 more game, they would have the leg up to win the division championship.
Springfield 9-11, (48-36)
The Cardinals were in the driver’s seat to win their division and the wheels
have come off. Still, if they are able
to beat Delphi 3-1 or sweep them, they will finish ahead of Roswell. A split with Delphi (tonight and tomorrow
night from what Chris has said), would put them in as the 2nd team
of 4 in the nightmare scenario. The
Cardinals have clinched a playoff spot and have the easiest schedule out of the
3 remaining teams vying for the Coastal Division Championship.
Roswell 7-9, (50-38) Being
swept by the Washington Senators really hurt the Greys this month. Congratulations to Bob for being first to
finish and on clinching a playoff spot, and possibly a division title.
Delphi 4-8, (34-42) Other
than Arlington and Chino, the Druids have played the fewest games. That will be rectified this week vs.
Springfield.
Transactions
None
2015 Kilg Korner
Hitting
|
Pitching
|
Overall
|
Team OPS Rank Top Player
OAK 0.783 1 Tulowitzki
SEA 0.782 2 Stanton
STE 0.757 3 V.
Martinez
STO 0.744 4 Goldschmidt
CPK 0.744 5 Puig
CHV 0.735 6 Freeman
DEL 0.731 7 Bautista
ARL 0.726 8 N.
Cruz
ROS 0.720 9 Brantley
WAS 0.718 10.5 Altuve
SPR 0.718 10.5 Kemp
OCC 0.683 12 Y.
Gomes
|
Team ERA Rank Top
Player
OAK 3.05 1
STO 3.10 2
ROS 3.20 3
STE 3.36 4
DEL 3.48 5
WAS 3.53 6
SEA 3.58 7
ARL 3.64 8
CPK 3.67 9
SPR 3.69 10
CHV 3.75 11
OCC 3.99 12
|
Team Rank
OAK 1
STO 2
STE 3
SEA 4
DEL 5.5
ROS 5.5
CPK 7
ARL 8
WAS 9
CHV 10
SPR 11
OCC 12
|
The MLB players have finished the regular season and the
statistics are now set. Oakton comes out
on top this year going into the draft.
Stonehenge and Sterling also have very strong teams. Seacoast is in the impressive position of
being the 4th ranked team with 8 draft picks in the first 4
rounds. What of lowly Occoquan, in 12th
place with 19 draft picks?
In an attempt to look ahead a bit, and see who will have
good chances to compete next year, I’ve made up the following matrix. This is an attempt to count the number of
good players teams will have next year, and ranking them by the total number of
good players. A person can choose any
numbers they want in this type of analysis, so it’s all speculative. What I am going by is to count only players
who look like they will be playoff eligible next year. For offensive numbers I count the number of
hitters who will probably not be J-4 xb on a team with OPS of at least
.775. This reflects the decline in
hitting, that we are dipping below the .800 level and saying a player is good,
but that’s my number I’m sticking with it.
For defensive numbers I count the number of starters who will probably
be carded with ERA at 3.50 or below, and the number of probable carded
relievers with ERA below 3.00. For the
draft picks I’m drawing the line at the end of the 5th round,
thinking surely with a 5th or lower pick you would be able to pick
up a player who fits into any of the above groups.
Here are the numbers:
Team
|
Hitters above .775
|
Starters below 3.50
|
Relievers below 3.0
|
Draft picks fifth or less
|
Total
|
|
OCC
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
17
|
22
|
|
OAK
|
8
|
7
|
4
|
1
|
20
|
|
STE
|
6
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
18
|
|
SEA
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
9
|
18
|
|
WAS
|
5
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
17
|
|
STO
|
6
|
6
|
4
|
0
|
16
|
|
DEL
|
5
|
3
|
3
|
5
|
16
|
|
CHV
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
14
|
|
CPK
|
5
|
1
|
3
|
5
|
14
|
|
ROS
|
2
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
13
|
|
ARL
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
13
|
|
SPR
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
10
|
So what might we conclude?
That Occoquan’s picks should be enough to transform the team into a
playoff team at a minimum, and possibly compete for a good seeding in the
playoffs. That Oakton, Sterling,
Seacoast, Washington, Stonehenge, and Delphi all are in position to make a run
at the playoffs.
Having only a 9th round pick will hold Dwight
back a lot next year. He’ll be in prime
position for a high amount of trading in the pre-season, with 16 solid players. He could sell off players in order to draft
prospects and play for 2016. He could
sell off to multiply picks and compete through trading and drafting. Or he could stand pat and fill his holes with
the supplemental draft.
If starters are King, Roswell is not as bad off as it seems
they might be. Bob will head into the draft with Cueto, around 17xz and good
for 19 starts, Greinke, around 15xz with 18 starts, Cobb, around 14yg with 15
starts. He also has Wacha, Cosart, and
Gio with ERAs between 3.20 and 3.69.
Turning to Oakton, they’ll be in the hunt once again. They feature blistering starting pitching
once again, with the ERA champions of the American League and the National
league. If Kershaw was an 19xzg last
year you can compare his numbers and see a similar card, with the x changed to
a k, he might even be graded as a 20kzg.
King Felix was a 13xzg with a 3.04 ERA last year. This year he projects to be a 17xzg righty
and he’ll have 19 starts of availability.
Regarding Washington, how about that Jose Altuve? He looks like a possible J-0, with lots of
hit numbers, 15 on base numbers, and a B-31 steal grade. Bart is going to have a good team next year.
At the bottom we have the Springfield Cardinals, the Hamner
favorites for 2015, by far. For Chris,
the off-season might be an opportunity to look over his players, and sell any
one year cards for as many picks as he can get, with which to draft prospects. Having 5 good hitters could be extremely
valuable if he wants take advantage of the rarity of hitting.
I could go on and on and cover each team, but let’s save it
for the December newsletter, after the disk comes out. In November we’ll start coverage of the 2014
NVABL playoffs. It should be exciting.
The MLB playoffs are here!
It’s time to relax, take a break from watching players and
enjoy watching games. Oakland lost in a
classic thriller last night, but San Francisco advanced behind Mad Bum’s
complete game shutout, 4 hits, 1 walk, and 10 strikeouts. I hope he has some gas left in his arm to
face the Nat’s in the division series.
Washington has to be highly favored because the Giants are currently
down to only 2 starters who are pitching well.
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