NVABL - Clubhouse Report December 2014

2014 Season is complete!

by:  Robert Whitney

Thanks to everyone for completing another great season, especially to Bart for marking the cards and playing a lot of games for Arlington and Chino Valley, Bob for helping out with Stats and playing those extra games, Chad for diligently keeping the website up to date despite having the most interesting life of any of us, and George for keeping us on an even keel.

2014 Final Statistical Leaders

Team ERA

Stonehenge 3.07

Arlington 3.37

Springfield 3.48

Sterling 3.79

ERA (75 innings minimum)

Colon 2.13

Sanchez 2.89

Kuroda 2.94

Fernandez 3.24

Wins

Kershaw 13

Shields 10

Miller 10

Lohse 9

Saves

Uehara 21

Nathan 20 (combined OCC and ROS)

Scheppers 20

Robertson 19

Strikeouts

Darvish 124

Wainwright 118

Hernandez 117

Strasburg 109

Team Batting Average

Chino Valley .259

Stonehenge .251

Roswell .250

Oakton .248

Individual Batting Average (200 PA minimum)

Gennett .368

Freeman .330

Rasmus .317

Mauer .307

Individual OPS (200 PA minimum)

Wright .987

Cabrera .966

Ramirez .923

Freeman .923

Home Runs

Cabrera 30 (wow)

Davis 19

Wright 17

LaRoche 17

Doubles

Pence 35

Mauer 28

McCutchen 27

2 with 26

Stolen Bases

Andrus 24

Kipnis 20

Ellsbury 19

Rios 18

Robinson 16

Ode to a Championship Season – A Stonehenge Timeline

For the final Newsletter of 2014, I present this timeline and analysis of how Dwight won his second plaque this year.  It was his fourth trip to the finals in 19 years in the league.  That’s a pretty good average for 12 teams.  Congratulations Dwight!

2013

5/30 Dwight decides he will not contend in 2013 and trades Josh Hamilton to Occoquan for OCC 2, STE 2, and OCC 3.  The Occoquan Franchise is set back by this trade in 2014.  They win a division title in 2013.

8/30 Dwight sends Matt Holliday to SPR for SPR 3.  Dwight now has 7 picks in the first 3 rounds of the 2014 draft, and 15 total.

9/23 The MLB season is still going on and the first behind the scenes trade talks on Hanley Ramirez begin between Dwight and Trader Roberto.  Robert declares that Hanley might be for sale next year and Dwight declares that if he is for sale, Stonehenge is interested.

11/7 The NVABL playoffs are in full swing and Roberto begins making overtures behind the scenes to other owners who might be interested in trading for Hanley Ramirez.  Roberto has pre-ranked the Occoquan team at #8, and out of the playoffs.

11/23 Roberto tells the entire league that Hanley Ramirez is available, to see who is interested.  Mike James and Dwight declare their interest, with Dwight saying “If he’s an SS-8, I’d likely do my first round pick.”

12/8 Information from the disk trickles out through the APBA chat rooms.  Dwight’s initial starting pitching lineup features:

Buchholz 18X
Moore 16XW
Wainwright 13XZ
Lester 11YZ

Kuroda 11YZ

Lynn 8x
Cahill 8W

This starting lineup alone proves that Stonehenge is a viable contender.  But the Oakton Aviator lineup is similar and Stonehenge must improve if they want to compete with the fly boys.

12/8 Hanley Ramirez is declared an SS-8 in the APBA chat rooms, with 1-1-4-6-6-7-11 numbers.  He is officially put on the market to the entire league.  Dwight gets the first bid in and sets the bar high with #1 and #4 picks.

12/8 the disk shows that Kojii Uehara will be a 24XYZG, and trade talks begin with Mike, Steve, and Dwight.

12/9 Springfield declares their intention to enter the Hanley sweepstakes.  Delphi has also expressed interest.  Mike James offers FMV #1 and a reliever, which is similar to Dwight’s offer.

12/10 Springfield pencils in an offer SEA #1 plus something.  SEA #1 was the 12^th overall pick.

12/10 Jason Werth is put on the trading block by Seacoast.  Apparently Chad did not want to have the 4 best outfield cards in the league, he only wanted 3.

12/15 Chad accepts OCC #2 and #3 from Stonehenge for Jason Werth.  I felt like Dwight over-paid, but he is going all in and you can’t argue with success.  Plaques cost a lot most of the time.

12/15 Delphi pulls out the Hanley Ramirez bidding without making a bid.  I had flat out offered Delphi Hanley for the #1 overall pick straight up, but George wisely decided to go for a younger player rather than try to contend in 2014.

12/16 Dwight wins the Hanley bidding with a price of STO 1, 4, and 5 picks.

2014 Draft

Round 2 Stonehenge drafts Tanner Roark a 16yzh right handed starter with limited availability using the #15 overall pick.  Roark will be a key starter in the playoffs and was a bargain 2^nd round pick, being a strong young pitcher in the Nationals organization.  With the #17 overall pick, Stonehenge drafts Scooter Gennett, a key cog in the machine as the starting 2B vs. righties.  With this pick, Dwight declares his intention to use the platoon system heavily in 2014.  Gennett has -22/4 splits with 14 safe numbers, and he went on to win the batting title with a .368 average.

Round 3 Stonehenge drafts two righty relievers, Carpenter 20*XY and Otero 19*ZH.  In the steroid ERA these guys might have gone late 1^st round, early 2^nd round.

Round 5 Stonehenge drafts Mike Carp, a DH type with -7/0 splits, 1-5-6-6 power, and 14 safe numbers.  Carp would be in the starting lineup vs. righties in the playoffs.

Round 6 Stonehenge drafts outfielder Christian Yelich with splits of -16/7, and Sergio Santos a 16*KZH righty who has fallen to the 6^th round because he only had 20 innings of availability.

Round 7 Stonehenge drafts Jordy Mercer, a 2B with 17/-7 splits to go with Gennett.  Dwight becomes the all-time “King of the Platooners” with this pick.

Round 8 Stonehenge drafts J.P. Howell, an 18*X lefty with 40 innings of availability.  It’s almost unbelievable that he fell this far.  You can destroy team’s lineups in games if you have a few lefties like this on your roster with plenty of innings, it allows free substitution of relievers to your heart’s content.

Round 9 Stonehenge drafts John Lackey, a 10YZL right handed starter who ends up being included in a trade later in exchange for Jordan Zimmerman.  Having guys like this you can throw in for coverage enables the upgrades.

Supplemental Rounds Stonehenge did not sit idle.  They picked up Mazzaro 13*ZG righty, Choate 15*YH lefty, Varvaro 14*G righty, Floriman SS9 defensive sub to fill remaining holes.  With the 5^th pick Dwight proves he has the gift of prophesy, taking Wade Davis, a 4Y washed up starter, who becomes one of Kansas City’s “Big Three”, pitching 72 innings of relief with a 1.00 ERA.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/wade-davis--a-fishing-pond-and-the-story-of-a-guy-who-wanted-to-be-great-at-something-040248816.html

2014 Season

1/30 Oakton is ranked the #1 team in the league following the draft.  Larry solidifies this position by sending OAK 1, 2, and 4 to Seacoast for Siegrist 29*xywg and Jimenez 14xw.  Chad was able to transform a 3^rd and a 5^th into a 1st, 2nd, and 4^th.  Dwight comments on Larry’s big trade and writes a note to Roberto saying “Kind of makes you wish you’d put Uehara on the block, doesn’t it.”  He is right.  It does.  Larry had intended on setting the bar high for future trades to make sure any other contenders would pay dearly to try and catch up, but he didn’t anticipate a top 6 team packing it in this early to cash in on similar profits.  The greed in me makes me decide to sell also.  It is only January and not a game has been played.

2/9 Stonehenge plays their first series and sweeps Washington.  Both teams came out with guns blazing using excellent starting rotations, and Washington was ranked number 7 post draft, so this is a good victory for Stonehenge.

2/12 Stonehenge spends big and acquires Jordan Zimmerman and Kojii Uehara from Occoquan for STO 1, 2, 3, 4, and John Lackey.

2/28 Stonehenge goes on the road and defeats Columbia Pike 3-1.  The trade paid off immediately as Game 3 featured a Jordan Zimmermann win and Uehara save, and Game 4 had a Wainwright win and Uehara save.

3/9 A 7-1 Stonehenge team faces an 8-4 Roswell team.  The trades lead Stonehenge to a sweep.  Zimmermann wins his game with a Uehara save.  Hanley Ramirez plays 3 games and has 5 extra base hits and 12 RBI.  The Druids have started the season 11-1.  The rest of the year they will go a much more tame 41 and 35.

3/11 Hanley rests four games while Delphi and Stonehenge split.

3/20 Stonehenge splits with lowly Seacoast.

4/12 Stonehenge takes 3 games vs. Occoquan.

4/28 Stonehenge takes 3 games vs. Sterling.  In game 4 Jason Werth hits a walkoff 3 run homer to win 6-3.

5/19 Stonehenge takes 3 games vs. Arlington.

5/26 Stonehenge takes 3 more against Occoquan.  Uehara has a win and a save.  Werth has a home run.  With four series in a row going 3-1 in favor of Stonehenge, the Druids have started the season 27-9.  They will go 25-27 the rest of the way.  They don’t need much else as Washington and Occoquan are both 10 games below .500.  Dwight has already wrapped up the division title for all practical purposes.

In the month of June, and cracks appear in the Druid armor, with 3-1 losses to fellow playoff teams Springfield and Oakton, while sweeping Seacoast.

7/13 Dwight suffers a devastating 0-4 loss to Roswell.

7/19 Stonehenge defeats Washington 3-1.  After this series Bart makes a decision that he will start to sell some players, salvage what he can, and be ready for next year.  Stonehenge will be the first recipient of talent from a strong Washington team that had very bad luck in 2014.

7/21 An interesting note from Dwight to the league: 

“From the Desk of Karl Lagerfeld

The Stonehenge Druids and myself personally wish to extend our condolences to the Washington Senators on the loss of their traveling secretary, Mr. Antoine Shiflett, who was fatally mauled by a mountain lion Saturday during the Senators' visit to San Mateo.  During the series, Mr. Shiflett, who had been eating a Super Burrito from Taqueria La Cumbre, failed the notice the posted mountain lion alert notices and panicked upon spotting the big cat, throwing his burrito at the apex predator, which subsequently enraged the beast and resulted in the demise of Mr. Shiflett. As everyone knows, and as was clearly stated on the alert notice, the big cats detest Mexican food, preferring either sushi or a lightly spiced barbecue.

Unfortunately, the cash-strapped Senators were unable to cover the costs of Mr. Shiflett's cremation,  leaving them with no choice but to cut ties with outfielder Daniel Nava and reliever Luke Hochever. This allowed the team to sell their return bus fares and thus cover the cremation fees.

As you know, in addition to my humility and modest attire, I am a charitable man. And as the two players were otherwise stuck in San Mateo, I agreed to take them off the books of the Senators for future considerations, which included our 5th, 6th, and 8th draft picks.”

Nava will crack the playoff starting lineup vs. righties, and Hochevar is a 19*xyz righty reliever.  We can all learn from Dwight on this trade, sometimes the best deals come in the middle of the year if you are patient and wait for them.

7/30 Stonehenge takes their improved team and defeats a strong Arlington team 3-1.

In the month of August Stonehenge takes 3 from Columbia Pike, Splits with Springfield, Delphi, and a strong Chino Valley team.  The totals are 9-7 in August and 46-30 overall.

8/25 As the final deal before the trade deadline, Dwight sends STO #7 and Varvaro to Delphi for Geovany Soto.  Soto further shores up the Stonehenge playoff lineup vs. righties by becoming the starting Catcher with a splits upgrade over Carlos Santana. Dwight is left with only 1 pick in the 2015 draft.  It’s his 9^th rounder, the last pick in the draft prior to the supplemental rounds.  This is probably the closest anyone has ever come to “All in” for the NVABL.

9/1 Stonehenge splits with Chino Valley and mathematically clinches the Piedmont division.  It is the only series they play in September.

10/2 Springfield finishes the season with a 3-1 series against Delphi, beating Roswell by one game in the Coastal division race.  It is up to Stonehenge vs. Oakton and Sterling to see if they will pass Springfield.

10/9 Oakton defeats Stonehenge 3-1.  Oakton needed to sweep to win the division title over Springfield.  Instead the Aviators finish 1 game behind the Cardinals.

10/14 Stonehenge beats Sterling 3-1 and earns the top seed throughout the playoffs.  This would prove to be crucial as their semi-final opponent ended up being Washington, a team that finished below .500.  Sterling finishes 2 games below Springfield, who will get a first round bye as the #2 seed.

Playoffs

Stonehenge brings a good starting rotation into the playoffs:

Buchholz 18X

Roark 16YZ

Wainwright 13XZ

Zimmermann 13YZ

11/3 Washington and Oakton split their first 2 playoff games.

11/4 Washington wins the next 3 games to advance.  This is a huge event in the Druids hunt for their plaque.  Oakton was a more formidable opponent.  Roswell has beaten Sterling to face Springfield.

11/4 Never one to sweat the pressure, Dwight takes a weeklong vacation in Hawaii with no email contact.  When he comes home he finds out to his surprise the entire league has been worried about him being missing before the semi-final series could be scheduled.

11/16 Stonehenge defeats Washington 4 games to 1 and advances to the finals.  Uehara had 2 saves.  Second round pick Roark had a win in game 3, with help from a Ramirez home run.  Mid-season pickup Hochever had a win in game 4. 

11/20 Roswell advances vs. Springfield to face Dwight in the finals.

12/6 Les Druids earn the plaque with a 4-1 series win over Roswell.  Wins by Buchholz, Roark, and 2 by Hochevar.  Uehara has 3 saves.  The playoff MVP is Clay Buchholz, the Ace of the Stonehenge staff.  In 4 games he had 3 wins, with only 2 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings while striking out 21 batters.

Summary

As Dwight mentioned in his write-up, this championship was a result of careful trading starting back in 2013.  But beyond that, a strong draft and further trades during the season were beneficial.  The players he picked up allowed him to clinch the #1 seed for the playoffs.  Once there, he was rewarded by being able to face a sub .500 team in the first round.  Many of the core Stonehenge players such as Buchholz, Goldschmidt, Encarnacion, and Votto took care of business to earn the plaque.  Once the playoffs got going, out of all the trades, it appeared that Hochevar and Uehara ended up helping Dwight the most by finishing out games and winning series.  Another key pickup was Roark in the 2^nd round of the draft.  Well done for a well-managed season, Dwight!

Our next newsletter will come out in January after the cards have come out.  It will be a pre-draft preview of 2015.  Thanks everyone for your participation in the league for 2014.  We have a good group of guys here.

2014 - First Round Playoffs [Roswell Over Sterling in 5]

Roswell moves on to the Final Four, by taking Sterling down in 5 games.  Many close games, the Greys 

have a miraculous comeback in game 5.

Game 1:  Sale vs Cobb

STP     0-1-0-0-0-0-0-0-0      1-3-0

ROS    0-1-0-0-0-0-1-1-x     3-8-0

W:  Cobb      L:  Rosenthal     S: Avilan      HR:  Hunter, Navarro, Desmond

Torri Hunter homers for the Pirates in the 2nd, but Dioner Navarro homers in the bottom half to tie the 

game.  Donnie Murphy opens the 7th for Roswell with a double and Alfonso Soriano hits a clutch 2-out 

RBI single to give the Greys the lead.  Desmond homers in the 8th to give Roswell an insurance run.  Alex 

Cobb gives up only 2 hits in 7 innings of work.  Luis Avilan retires the side in order in the 9th to pick up

the save.

Game 2:  Bumgarner vs Greinke

STP    0-0-0-0-0-0-0-3-0       3-7-0

ROS   1-1-0-0-1-0-1-0-x       4-9-0

W:  Greinke     L:  Bumgarner     S:  Torres      HR:  Soriano (2), Carlos Gonzalez

Desmond leads off the 1st for Roswell with a triple and scores on Jed Lowrie’s double.  Soriano reaches 

back to past glory as he hits solo homers in the 2nd and 5th innings.  The Greys get another run in the 7th 

from a PH Gattis single, driving in Fielder.  Greinke cruises through 7 innings with a 4 run lead, but the 

Pirates make a comeback in the 8th.  Cargo hits a 2-run homer which is followed by a Mauer double who 

later scores on a groundout to make it 4-3.    Alex Torres comes in to close the door, retiring the last 5 

batters and striking out the side in the 9th to pick up the save for Roswell.

Game 3:  Gio Gonzalez vs Weaver

ROS     0-0-0-0-2-0-0-0-0     2-4-3

STP     2-2-0-1-0-4-0-0-x      9-12-1

W:  Weaver      L:  Gio       HR:  Cabrera

The Pirates shell Gio early and often as Gonzalez exits in the 2nd down 4-0.  MVP Cabrera gets 4 RBI’s in 

those first two innings, including a 2-run homer in the 1st.  Utley commits two consecutive errors in the 

4th to give Sterling another run.  A couple of walks plus a Murphy error leads the Pirates to 4 more runs 

in the 6th.  Weaver goes 5+ strong innings as the Sterling bullpen of Thielbar, Ross and Cook hold off any 

chance of a Roswell rally.

Game 4:  Cosart vs Fister

ROS    3-0-1-0-2-1-0-0-0      7-10-1

STP     0-1-0-0-0-0-3-0-0      4-7-2

W:  Cosart      L:  Fister    S: Avilan    HR:  Utley

The Greys score early off Fister with 4 hits and 3 runs in the 1st.  A Kipnis sac fly drives in Hunter in the 

2nd.    But Roswell gets that run back in the 3rdfrom a Lowrie single, aided by a Kipnis error.  Utley leads 

off the 5th with a homer for the Greys and Lowrie drives in Desmond on a sac fly.  Down 7-1 in the 7th, 

Sterling starts making a comeback.  Rizzo leads off the 7th by getting on from a Murphy error.  A Kipnis 

double and Torres wild pitch leads to 2 runs.    Cargo hits a RBI single to make it 7-4.  But Joaquin Benoit 

and Avilan shut down the Pirates the rest of the way for the Roswell victory.  Cosart goes 6 innings,

allowing 2 earned runs and only 1 walk.

Game 5:  Cobb vs Sale

ROS    0-2-0-0-0-0-0-0-5-1      8-9-4

STP     0-0-1-1-0-4-0-0-1-0      7-6-1

W:   Benoit       L: Nathan       S: Torres       HR:  Cargo, Don Murphy, Utley, Harper

With the score tied at 2 in the 4th, Cobb loses control with a couple of walks.  Aaron Loup comes in for 

Roswell to stop the rally.  The Pirates score four in the 6th as two different Roswell pitchers make errors. 

 Cargo hits a big 3-run homer to give Sterling a 6-2 lead.  Sale goes 8 strong innings for Sterling, allowing 

only 2 runs and striking out 13.  Lowrie leads off the 9th with a single, prompting Joe Nathan to make his

 first appearance of the series with a 4 run lead.  Bryce Harper pinch hits for Jeff Baker and walks.  

Murphy is hit by the pitch to load the bases for Navarro.  But Utley is called on to PH for Navarro and hits 

a grand slam to tie the game.  Michael Branley doubles a batter later and Roswell takes the lead in the 9th

 from another clutch RBI single from Soriano.  Benoit starts the bottom of the 9th for Roswell by getting 

Mauer to ground out.  MVP Cabrera then walks.  In a big move that would invalidate the DH, Rutledge 

comes in to PR for Cabrera.  Rutledge then steals 2nd and 3rd with 1 out.  Anthony Rizzo then ties it up 

again with a sac fly bringing Rutledge in.  Nathan starts the 10th by striking out Pierzynski.  But Bryce 

Harper follows with solo homer to give Roswell the lead for good.  Torre retires the Pirates in order in 

the 10th to give Roswell the series win.

Soriano goes 6 for 10 in the series with 5 RBIs and 2 homers to get MVP honors.  Honorable mention to 

Lowrie who goes 7 for 19 with 4 RBIs. 

Bob Brown

NVABL -- The Clubhouse Report -- (End of 2014 Regular Season)

The Clubhouse Report

Northern Virginia APBA Baseball League

End of Regular Season 2014

Congratulations to everyone in finishing the games this year, and all the help people gave in running two teams who had no manager.  It was a pleasant year working with so many experienced managers.  Overall it looks like the competition is very even.  We have parity, considering that any given year any team might be at the top or bottom.  I will be putting out this newsletter now, with my commentary on each team for the regular season, and analysis of the playoff matchups for the first round.  I’ll put out two more playoff oriented newsletters, prior to the semi-finals and prior to the finals.  Then at the end of the year I’ll put out one covering the championship series, and looking ahead to the free agents in the draft.

Fianl Standings

Coastal Division

	W	L	%	GB
Springfield	51	37	.579	--
Oakton	50	38	.568	1
Roswell	50	38	.568	1
Sterling	48	40	.545	3
Columbia Pike	38	50	.432	13
Delphi	38	50	.432	13

Piedmont Division

	W	L	%	GB
Stonehenge	52	36	.591	--
Arlington	49	39	.557	3
Chino Valley	47	41	.534	5
Washington	40	48	.455	12
Occoquan	35	53	.398	17
Seacoast	30	58	.341	22

October Results

SPR 3	at	DEL 1
CHV 2	at	OAK 2
ARL 3	at	SEA 1
OAK 3	at	STO 1
CHV 2	at	ARL 2
OCC 2	at	CHV 2
DEL 1	at	CHV 3
CHV 4	at	SEA 0
STO 3	at	STE 1
WAS 2	at	DEL 2
CPC 1	at	ARL 3
ARL 1	at	CHV 3

 

How did things turn out?

Ranked in order of my pre-season predictions, here is a look at each team, along with their record in October and for the year.

#1 Oakton 5-3, (50-38) The predictions were a little overblown for the Aviators this year and they finished 3rd.  On paper they can blow you away when you look at them.  But Larry put out an email on September 23 which shows some of the weaknesses of making predictions about an offense based solely on OPS.  He said the problems are due to not having good cards to hit and run with combined with lots of 24s on his cards.  When guys get on base he says he loses more opportunities to double plays than most teams do.  If double plays were truly a problem you would expect the main culprits to be Ortiz with 4 double plays on his card, and Beltre and Cano who each had 3.  We see Ortiz had 11 GDP, Beltre had 8, and Cano had 5.  The surprise is to see that Tulo had 11 even though he only had 2 double play numbers on his card.  It’s hard to say he had bad luck though because he led the team in home runs with 15 despite playing in only 75 games and having 1-0-0-0 power.  Before I make predictions next year I am going to put more study into baseball statistics and find something else to judge position players, such as Wins Above Replacement.  Don’t know yet, just a thought, and I’m open to suggestions.

Maybe Larry had cold dice this year, and they will get hot in the playoffs.

#2 Stonehenge 4-4, (52-36) The important thing that Stonehenge did was win the number 1 seed position in the playoffs this year.  The bye significantly increases the odds of a championship because we have a lot of parity in the league, so every playoff series comes down to rolling out the bones and see where they land.  He had a great year.  The Druids, are still one of the more powerful teams in the league and they could win it all.  More will be said about them prior to the semi-finals.

#3 Occoquan 2-2, (35-53) Occoquan threw in the towel after drafting to compete and before any games were played.  Their manager is a Jekyll and Hyde character, and is wishy-washy about sticking to goals.  The best player was their first round draft pick, Yan Gomes, who hit 13 home runs and 43 RBIs in 59 games.  Without all the trades, who knows, maybe Occoquan would have finished between 3 and 6, they probably would have come in 2^nd in their division.

#4 Springfield 3-1, (51-37) The Cardinals finished 2nd.  A lot of trades helped this team exceed expectations.  Chris as a field manager is one of the best in the league.  One of the things that helps Chris is splitting series over two nights, so he is on his game and energetic when he is behind the wheel of this great franchise.  He’s always been the best at creating a playoff atmosphere in every game and putting more pressure on the opposition than anyone else.  Springfield is very competitive and has a shot at the title.  More will be said about them prior to the semi-finals when we look at the matchups.

#5 Chino Valley 16-8 , (47-31) Chino was predicted 5^th and finished 6^th.  This team had the capability of fielding a lot of power in a lineup, with 8 out of 9 players having ones on a roll of 66.  I had pretty good success with Chino playing in that style, going 10-6 managing them.

#6 Roswell 0-0, (50-38) Bob finished 4^th, tied with Larry but losing the tie breaker.  Trading for Fielder improved his team, and they exceeded expectations.  They have a shot at the title also.  It’s a pleasure to have Bob in the league, and this year he did so much for us above and beyond the call of duty in helping manage the two teams who needed help and keep the statistics. 

#7 Washington 2-2, (40-48) The Senators Finished in 8^th place and will be able to draft in the #5 position.  Early on they were competing to make the playoffs but near the end tossed in the towel.  They will still be in the playoffs due to us having two above .500 teams without a manager.  Bart says Oakton is going to feast on them.  That’s probably right, it would take hot dice and cold Oakton dice in order for Washington to win in the first round. 

Thanks also to Bart for helping out so much with the two teams who needed help.

#8 Sterling 1-3, (48-40) Sterling was predicted 8^th and finished in 6^th.  The trades during the year turned them into a contender with a shot at the title.  There is strong hitting here, ok starting pitching, and strong bullpen.  Walt is one of the best in the league at field management, but due to life situations will sometimes struggle when he has to play late, late, at night and is exhausted.  Let’s hope he is well rested for the playoff series and is able to feel great about the job he did this year when all is done, win or lose.

#9 Arlington 9-7, (49-39) Arlington finished 5^th.  When I put together their lineup as a guest manager it looked like they had good power and good pitching.  Their low 3.37 ERA and league leading 114 home runs confirm this as being true.  There was a pretty big disparity between where I thought they would end up and where they ended up, so I must not have recognized the fine bats they had as much as I should have in my pre-season analysis.

#10 Delphi 4-8, (38-50) Delphi tied with Columbia Pike for 9^th.  For much of the year they were in the hunt for the playoffs, and after they made trades to throw in the towel, dropped like a rock.

Thank you to George for keeping a steady hand at the helm of this league and providing much wisdom and guidance.

#11 Columbia Pike 1-3, (38-50) Finished tied with Delphi for 9^th.  Kept the draft picks and looking forward to next year.  It is a pleasure to have Steve in the league.  When I play against Steve and Bob I often reflect about how lucky we were as a league the year these two joined, and how bad off we would be without them.

#12 Seacoast 1-7, (30-58) Just as predicted Seacoast won the Hamner trophy.  The main reason for this was not having high enough grades on the pitching staff to win games.  The Wayfarers had an ERA of 4.40.  Of the 8 teams that have emailed 88 game stats to the league, the next highest ERA was Occoquan at 4.08.  In home runs Seacoast ranked next to last with 67, while Occoquan had the lowest with 30.  The highest was Arlington with 114, then Oakton with 112.

This is going to be a very tough choice for Chad with the number one pick.  Does he go for hitting or starting pitching?  Already having 3 of the top bats in the league for next year with McCutchen, Trout, and Stanton, having a solid first base card in LaRoche, will he go for Jose Abreu as a DH?  Or might he trade LaRoche and use Abreu at 1B?  Or will he go with starting pitching?  The best card appears to be Kluber with a high projected grade of 16xyzg and high availability and age of 28.  Or will he go with a younger up and coming starting pitcher with a good card and lower age as many of the past high picks in our draft have been?  Or will he trade the #1 pick to multiply it and get 2 or 3 really good picks or players in return?

I want to give a special thanks to Chad for providing back up leadership to the league when George was travelling, and for keeping the web site up to date for us all.  A job well-done Chad!

 

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2014 Playoff Anaylsis

Many thanks for Chris in providing a timely and helpful spreadsheet used to look at the cards of the players that are on the playoff rosters.  In this look when I mention results the statistics are coming from the 88 game reports from this year in the NVABL.  I will attempt to match up similar types of pitchers and go through the position players one position at a time, and keep a running tally of who wins each matchup.  At the end we will see who has won more matchups and predict who wins the series and how many games it takes them to win it.  I’ll leave the teams with a bye out of it, and save those for additional newsletters when the time comes for them.

First Round Washington at Oakton

Starting Pitchers

Washington brings  Fernandez 18xyg righty with 3.24 ERA, Scherzer 16xy righty, Thornburg 14yh righty, and Gray 13xg righty.

Oakton brings Kershaw 19xzg lefty 13-3 with 2.95 ERA, Sanchez 16xyg righty 8-5 with 2.89 ERA, Hernandez 13xzg righty 7-5 with 3.07 ERA, and Jimenez 14xw righty 5-4 with 5.96 ERA 

For the top 3 pitchers the matchups are basically even.  The advantage Kershaw would have over Fernandez in a game 1 matchup would be negated by him being a lefty and I would grade them even.  Gray would have a slight advantage over Jimenez in a game 4 matchup because of the w.  I’ll score this as 1 for Washington and 3 ties.  The score is 1-0-3 for Washington.

Relief pitchers

RP Jansen 19kxz righty vs. Holland 24kxg righty with 0.77 ERA and 18 saves   Advantage Oakton because the grade that far past 20 puts Holland into a whole different class than Jansen.  Oakton evens it up at 1-1-3.

RP Cotts 24xyh lefty with 0.00 ERA vs. Siegrist 29kwg lefty with 1.40 ERA Advantage Washington, both are lefties and well north of grade 20.  The h saves more runs than the g, and the w might create 4 or 5 outs in an inning and give Washington an undeserved run or two.   I would prefer to have Cotts on my team, which makes the score 2-1-3 in favor of Washington.

RP Kintzler 14yzh righty vs. Romo 14xz righty with 3.09 ERA. In the battle of the z’s this is an even enough matchup.  I count this as a tie and the score is 2-1-4 Washington.

RP Wilson 19ywg lefty vs. Lopez 16xzh lefty with 3.57 ERA  Advantage Oakton, zh beats wg and the grades are not that far apart to make up for it.  Oakton evens the count up at 2-2-4.

RP Gregerson 13xzg righty vs. Casilla 19ywg righty EVEN matchup, a 19 can be much more effective than a 13 but the w vs. the z brings it back and neither one has a clear advantage.  Some might disagree with me on this but I just don’t like w’s and I like z’s.  That’s why I traded Nathan to get Storen rather than Casilla.  My mistake was not using him to get Tyson Ross when that small window was open.  The window slammed shut and Ross finished the season strong.

Back to the analysis, the totals for the pitchers I score as 2-2-5.  The Washington staff can hold their own vs. Oakton with a score of 2-2 with 5 ties.

Position players

C Molina C9T6 1/-2 and Wieters C9T6 6/-4 vs. Lucroy C8T-1 2/-2 and McCann C8T0 -10/2  Advantage Washington.  These catchers destroy whatever small running game Oakton might have had, and their bats are pretty good.  Wieters split vs. lefties might be a factor vs. Kershaw.  He might be starting in those games.  Either way,catcher’s defense is important in this game and C9 can be a difference maker over C8, as often as 22s, rare plays, team rolls, and infield rolls happen.  Lucroy and McCann’s bats are good, but I’m scoring this 3-2-5 in favor of Washington.

1B 1B5 Gonzalez -3/0 vs. Moss or Ortiz and Napoli platoon.  The 1B5 counts for a lot and the double ones count for a lot, so that is even, but Moss might need to play OF because Oakton only has one that can hit vs. the 4 righties that Bart will be starting.  If Ortiz plays vs. righties it weakens the DH position, so this is basically Gonzalez vs. Napoli and I would choose Gonzalez.  Still the difference is not huge, Napoli has a good card, and with the additional flexibility Oakton has with those two other players, I am calling this even.  The score is 3-2-6 in favor of Washington.

2B Altuve and Infante vs. Cano.  Too bad Altuve isn’t able to bring next year’s card.  He is 2B-7 with 1/-2 splits, 0-6 power, and 9 second column ones.  Infante is a 2B7 who doesn’t have a 1 on 66 and won’t do much with 0-0-0 power and 8 second column ones.  Cano’s 2B8 with 1-0-0-0 power is one of the best 2B cards in the league so I give this one to Oakton.  3-3-6 evens up the score.

3B Arenado and Johnson vs. Beltre.  Johnson has some pop with 0-6-6 power and 24 second column ones but Beltre has 1-5-6 power and is one of the better 3B cards in the league.  He led the Aviators with 47 RBIs.  4-3-6 in favor of Oakton.

SS Peralta and Drew are SS8 and could platoon vs. Tulowitzki.  They both have 0-0-0-0 power.  Once again we see middle infielders who can’t field well and can’t hit with much power, this time vs. a 1-0-0-0 guy who hit 15 home runs and 40 RBIs along with being an SS-9.  5-3-6 in favor of Oakton.

OF Washington brings Ellsbury, Fowler, Jackson, Pence, and Ross.  Oakton brings Braun, Cuddyer, Raburn, Upton, and Moss.  Both teams bring 2 OF3s and 3 OF2s that can hit.  Both have mixed splits.  Ellsburys D-35 could be a difference maker in game situations that could be used vs. Oakton’s relatively weak catchers arms, so I’m giving a point to Washington.  There is a lot more home runs on the Oakton side, and slightly better on base numbers, so I’m giving 2 points to Oakton.   So I would give 2 out of 3 outfield points to Oakton.  7-4-6 in favor of Oakton.

DH Trumbo vs. Ortiz.  1 more point in favor of Oakton.  Ortiz is one of the best.  He had an OPS of .837 in 258 plate appearances for the Aviators.  I score this 8-4-6 in favor of Oakton.

Extra players on the roster, we could call this Simon vs. Prado or Robinson.  Robinson is a defensive sub to give Oakton 3 OF3s.  Simon is a grade 14 righty.  Prado brings little to the table except a +4 vs. lefties.  His .866 OPS in only 89 plate appearances means he is only used against lefties normally.  Washington’s lefties are high graded so his OPS would be more like .668 in the playoffs.  This is an even exchange between the 3 of them.  The final score count is 8-4-7 in favor of Oakton.

Summary: Oakton’s bats are much better than Washington’s and the pitching is about even which is a real complement to Washington to be able to hang with one of the best staffs in the league if not the best.  I would predict Oakton advances in 5.  It won’t be the cake walk that Bartoli is moaning about in his emails, but Oakton should advance never the less.

First Round Sterling vs. Roswell

Starting Pitchers

SP Weaver 11yz righty vs Greinke 16y righty.  Advantage goes to Roswell .  1-0-0 for Roswell.

SP Bumgarner 14x lefty vs. Cobb 14x righty.  This is pretty even.  Roswell doesn’t hit all that great against lefties.   1-0-1 for Roswell

SP Fister 10zg righty vs. Cosart 17wg righty.  I think the difference in grades is big enough to give Roswell the advantage when we are talking about it being a starting pitcher that has the w.  It seems to be safer for starters, the situations are less crucial in the early innings.  2-0-1 for Roswell.

SP Sale 12xz lefty vs. Gonzalez 13xw lefty.  Advantage goes to Sterling on this one because of the Z vs. W.  2-1-1 for Roswell

Relief Pitchers

Nathan 23xyh righty vs. Benoit 19xyg  This matchup is won by Nathan.  The score is 2-2-1.

Chapman 17kxyw lefty vs. Loup 15yzg lefty, I would rather have Loup on my playoff roster, wouldn’t you?  The score is 3-2-1 in favor of Roswell.

Papelbon 13xz righty vs. Street 14yzm.  I would rather have Papelbon because of the M that Street has.  There will be certain matchups and boards where the M would be safe but Papelbon would have no such limits to when he can be used.  This ties the score at 3-3-1.

Cook 15xh righty vs. Ziegler 16zg righty.  Ziegler wins this matchup for Roswell.  The score is 4-3-1 in favor of Roswell. 

Thielbar 19xz lefty vs. Torres 21xyh lefty.  The z evens up the grade difference and the h in my way of thinking, so I would rate this matchup as even.  The score is 4-3-2 in favor of Roswell at the end of the pitching analysis.

Position Players

C Mauer C9T6 -2/-1 with strong bat vs. Pierzynski C8T3 -1/-1 with 1-6-6 power but far less OBP, he had .289 for the season and OPS of .694.  The defense is important here. Sterling is bringing 2 lefty starters so Bob is facing a tough choice to us Navarro with 10/-5 but defensively drops to C7T0.  Navarro’s OPS was a respectable .759 in 108 plate appearances, probably mostly vs. lefties.  I would grade these matchups as an advantage for Sterling, mainly because of the defense.  The score is tied at 4-4-2. 

1B Rizzo -7/1 1B4 1-0-0-0 vs. Fielder -1/-1 1B3 1-6-6.  Rizzo’s weakness vs. lefties and no platoon mate would make me rather have Fielder in the playoffs.  Walt’s tight fistedness to make a trade and fill this hole could bite him in the playoffs.  This is nearly an even matchup because of the 1B4, but I would give Roswell 1 point advantage in the 1B position.  The score is 5-4-2 in favor of Roswell.

2B Sterling brings a platoon of 2B-7 players.  Kipnis is 0/-2 with 0-0-6 power and 16 2^nd column ones.  Rutledge is -6/1 with 0-0 power and 14 2^nd column ones.  Kipnis has 14 on base numbers so he may be used against some of the righties and have a better matchup.  Those double zeros with a lot of second column ones presents decent power.  Roswell’s platoon is also 2B-7 with Lowrie having -1/-1 splits 0-0-0-0 power with 7 ones.  Utley is -5/0 with 1-4-6 power.  Lowrie’s OPS this year was .842 and Utley’s was .678.  Both had more than 200 plate appearances.  This is close but if we say Kipnis and Lowrie are even then we can say surely Utley is better than Rutledge.  Rutledge only has 11 on base numbers vs. 13 for Utley.  I will give a point to Roswell and that makes the score 6-4-2 in favor of Roswell.

3B The Pirates own the 3B position with Cabrera, 1-1-5-6 power, 15 on base numbers.  Donnie Murphy can match the 1-1-5-6 power, but has only 12 on base numbers, he might be the DH.  Chase headley has 14 on base numbers with -1/-1 splits and 3B-4.  He has 0-0-0 power.  He is a good player and looks like the everyday 3B for Roswell.  Advantage goes to Sterling and that makes the score 6-5-2 in favor of Roswell.

SS Sterling brings Elvis Andrus with 0-0 power and no home runs to speak of, SS8, 1/-2, D-32.  Roswell brings Ian Desmond with 1-0-0-0 power, SS8, and -2/-1 splits.  This is an advantage for Roswell and the score is 7-5-2 in favor of Roswell.

OF Sterling brings 4 outfielders, the big three are Cargo OF3, Bruce OF3, and Dickerson OF2.  Roswell brings 7 outfielders, so more platoons which will be useful against the 2 lefty and 2 righty starter combination of Sterling.  Cargo is the best from both teams and probably in the entire league.  He is OF3, -4/0, 1-1-0-0-0 14 on base numbers, and D-34.There are 3 Outfielders on Roswell that have double ones, but one of them is Gattis, an OF1 who I’ll look at in the DH comparison.  The best of the bunch for Roswell would be Baker who is OF2 6/-18, 1-1-6-6, and 14 on base numbers.  This can be verified when you look at his OPS for Roswell this year, 1.022 in 128 plate appearances.  The next best was Soriano at .823 in 118 plate appearances.  Roswell platooned the outfielders a lot this year.  Brantley has the most plate appearances with only 203.  I’ll give Sterling two points and Roswell 1 point for the outfields.  The tally goes up to 8-7-2 in favor of Roswell.

DH Sterling brings a platoon of Martinez and Valencia.  Martinez has -4/0 splits with 0-0-0 power and 14 on base numbers.  Valencia has 6/-13 splits with 1-5-5-6 power and 13 on base numbers.  Roswell brings Murphy with 4/-3 splits, 1-1-5-6 power and 12 on base numbers, or Gattis with 1/-2 splits with 1-1-6-6 power and only 11 on base numbers.  For the double ones, I’m giving this point to Roswell.  The count is now 9-7-2 in favor of Roswell.

Extra players on the roster:  Sterling has 2 additional relief pitchers, Rosenthal a 15kyg righty and Ross a 12yzg lefty.  Roswell has the extra outfielders and more double ones.  With 4 of 7 games potentially being National League, I think Roswell is going to be stunted in flexibility with only 5 relievers.  They will be platooning more than Sterling.  I think the relief pitching will do more for Sterling and would give 1 more point to Sterling making the final tally 9-8-2.

Summary, with only 2 even matchups, these teams are very different, it will be a dynamic series with bigger swings in momentum.  I’ll predict that Roswell advances in a hard fought 7 games.  If you disagree with me on the Rizzo vs. Fielder comparison and call it even then this series is a coin toss.  If you say Rizzo would be better than Fielder, you could say that Sterling advances in 7.  It should be a fun series.

Thanks for another great season

I want to thank you all for the work and service you put in this year.  I learned one thing I hadn’t realized before, that it is much more important to have the RIGHT men managing these teams than for every team to have a manager.  It was my first time without all 12 teams having a manager, if you don’t count the year Bart remained the manager of Washington but was unable to play any games.  I hope we will go forward and not settle for any managers who only represent a breathing body but make little effort to participate in the league and enjoy the experience.  I’ve learned it is better to go without managers than to have someone only half managing.  For one thing it’s a lot easier to get the games in with substitutes on a voluntary basis than to try and schedule with a guy who doesn’t answer his emails.  At the same time, go easy if you need to, don’t take on too much responsibility and don’t let yourself be overwhelmed next year if you need a rest for a little while.  Someone will come forward and pick up the slack, you can count on that.  It was a great year, I was happy to be part of it.  This game is a lot of fun, and I have a lot of respect for you guys.  Thanks.