NVABL
Newsletter
January 2014
Championship 2013
Congratulations to Chad and his Seacoast Wayfarers for marching to the
championship in impressive fashion to close out the 2013 season. It wasn’t quite Fo’, Fo’, and Fo’, (for those
of you who remember the 1983 Philadelphia 76’ers), but it was close. It was Six, Five, and Five. Now Chad faces the aftermath of trading
everything he had for the plaque. Today
we’ll see how it looks for him in the pre-draft rankings.
2014 Draft
Christmas is almost here! The 2014
Dave, Ryan, and Mike Memorial draft will be held at 9 AM EST on Sunday, January
26th. Larry is hosting the East
Coasters, Dwight is hosting the West Coasters, and Chad has arranged a
conference call number for the rest of us.
Thank you everyone in advance, for all your hard work and preparation.
Pre-season Rankings
I’ve run some new rankings of the teams, going into the draft. I ranked each team in 11 categories: The 5 best starting pitchers, the 5 best
relievers, the best player at each position, the best DH, and the best player
to bring off the bench. I picked the
players on each team I thought was the best in each category, then I ranked the
teams against each other in each category.
For example, the team’s best starter went head to head against the other
team’s aces. The team’s best catcher
went head to head against the other team’s best catchers, etc. For the category of draft picks, I took the
top 4 picks on each team and averaged the overall pick numbers, then ranked
them head to head vs. the other team’s average of their top 4 picks.
An example of how the draft ranking works is in Columbia Pike, who ended
up being our top ranked team for draft picks.
Their first 4 picks overall are # 3, 4, 16, and 40. The average of those 4 is 15.75. The second ranked team was Springfield with
the # 9, 12, 21, and 24 picks for an average of 16.5. While the draft can truly change overall
rankings more than any one thing, I limited it’s impact in this pre-season work
to having a weight of only 1 out of 11 categories. I wanted this newsletter to reflect where the
teams stand prior to the draft, and let the rankings that come out post draft
show where they stand as a result of the draft.
The way that the pitching rankings worked was just based on
the grades of your top 5 starters and top 5 relievers. This rewarded teams that have depth in
pitching, and will not need to spend so many draft picks on them. Tiebreaks were based on availability first,
and in the interesting case of the identical relievers Holland and Kimbrel, I
went so far as checking move to first, and HB0 ratings. Each had 24*kxg grades, 37 relief
appearances, 40 innings, and MF 0. Only Holland
had the HB0 on his card, so he was ranked as the 3rd best number 1
reliever on the teams, behind 27*xyh Jesse Crain, and 24*kxzg Koji Uehara. Kimbrell came in with the #4 ranking among
relievers.
The rankings of the position players was based on a
combination of their OPS with the bat, and their defensive grades at their
positions. The science of this is not
set in concrete, if all 12 of us ranked teams we might come up with 12
different rankings. A lot of my
decisions were made on the fly, with thoughts like “yeah, Machado deserves a
big bump up for his 3B-6, how often have we seen a 3B-6, it should be
celebrated a little bit when it happens”.
Results of the Rankings
See the spreadsheet attached to the email for more details.
Overall Rankings
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Pitching Rankings
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Hitter Rankings
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Draft Rankings
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OAK 1
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SPR 1
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SPR 2
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OAK 2
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STO 3
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OCC 3
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STE 4
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STE 4
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VMT 5
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STO 5
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ARL 6
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VMT 6
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OCC 7
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ARL 7
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WAS 8
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CPC 8
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DEL 9
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WAS 9
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CPC 10
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ROS 10
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ROS 11
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DEL 11
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SEA 12
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SEA 12
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2014 Team
Scoops
1)
Oakton
Once again, for the 5th year in a row, we enter
a draft with Oakton ranked as the number 1 team. The question that will be settled by the
draft is can anyone catch them for the start of the season, or come
close. Oakton being ranked #1 was a
bit of a surprise to me, I was expecting Stonehenge to take that honor.
The first numbers that jump out is Oakton had the number 1
ranking in hitting, number 2 in pitching, but number 12 in the draft. The average ranking for Oakton’s starting
players was 3.760 out of 12. It’s
astounding that the next team could only manage 5.240. It’s astounding that Oakton does this year
after year. Due to Larry’s careful
planning, the dynasty continues to flex its muscles every season.
The starting pitching is the best in the league. Kershaw was #1 of all starters. Cain was way down, but Sanchez stepped up
and with a 16xyg record was ranked first of all the second tier
starters. The other #1’s for Oakton
were Cano at 2B, Moss at the third OF position, and Ortiz at DH. The only thing keeping Tulowitzki from
assuming his normal position as the #1 shortstop was a monster year by Hanley
Ramirez. It goes on and on regarding
Oakton, but their weaknesses are that their Bullpen is not strong, and they
have no draft picks to make it up. You
can’t win a championship without a bullpen, but Larry did spend his #2 pick
on a fantastic closer, so he is only two trades away during the season for
setup guys to give himself a chance at the plaque. Because he had no luck in the playoffs 4
out of the last 5 times, I’m going to go ahead and predict the plaque for
Larry this year. If nothing else it’s
a makeup call by the dice deities, for the previous times Larry had the best
probability of winning and did not.
2) Springfield
Here is the biggest surprise that I see. Springfield held their own in the rankings
and with the #2 ranking in draft picks, they appear to have the best chance
of catching Oakton. You look at the
Cardinals numbers and little jumps out at you in the way of dominant
players. There was only one #1 in the
group, and it was Mike Minor, at 11xz the best 5th starter in the
league. Instead of domination, the
Cardinals method is consistency.
Springfield was ranked #1 overall in pitching, with a 3.730 of 12
average for all starters and relievers.
The starting rotation of 15xyzg, 14yg, 13y, 12xy, and 11xz are almost
good enough to be considered championship caliber. They were slightly below average in hitting,
ranked 7th in the league.
The biggest doubt I see in Springfield is does our friend
Mr. Corish have the WILL to win. He’s
talked nothing but doubt and rebuilding in his official communications. Sometimes that’s a smokescreen of psyops,
we’ve all been around long enough to know it.
But think about it. He has two
number one draft picks and two number two draft picks that he held onto,
somehow, during all the pre-draft trading.
Perhaps some of that was not his choice, it takes two to dance. A couple of number ones and number twos can
buy the best role players in the draft should he decide to go that way. Or, he can rebuild and buy some more
excellent choices for the future like Machado.
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3) Stonehenge
Here is the team I expected to be number one
post-draft. I’m not so sure it can
happen now, and I’m ranking them number 3 pre-draft. The druid’s hitting will be great. They have three #1 in their positions in
Goldshmidt, Ramirez, and Encarnacion. A
bit of a log jam there with Votto having a better OPS, which one is going to DH
and which one is either a glorified pinch hitter or trade bait? Dwight’s starting pitching is excellent, with
Bucholtz, Moore, Wainwright, Kuroda, and Lester ranked 2, 3, 1, 1, and 3. A huge undercard for Wainwright hurts. How can they do that to him in a year where
St. Louis was good?
The weakness of this team is it’s bullpen. The top 2 grades are like a lot of teams
third and fourth reliever. It gets ugly
when you look past those 2 guys. So
let’s say Dwight draft’s relief with his first 4 picks, his bullpen would be
solid and he would be on his way. If it
was starting pitching he needed with the picks he had, I would say it couldn’t
be done, but relief pitchers are the easiest commodity to buy and sell in the
game, and Dwight could be well on his way to being the contender we thought he
would be this year.
4) Sterling
Sterling comes in with some surprising numbers. They are strong in the bottom end of their
rotation and bullpen. Add to that the
best catcher card and best third base card in all the league, Mauer and
Cabrera. They are number 3 in hitting
and number 4 in pitching. To compete
this year Walt is going to have to hang on to Mauer, and get rid of some
deadwood at 1B and pick up a solid 1B card.
Unfortunately the “Deadwood” players have big time names like Mr. Albert
Pujols, or Sir Lance Berkman. Each year
as they get older, holding onto them becomes more un-tenable. Walt thinks differently than me on players,
i.e. long term value vs. one year value.
He knows Mauer is getting longer in the tooth and is not slated to catch
again so he wants to sell him while he’s high.
Walt’s idea of high sometimes far surpasses all the bidder’s idea of
high, and that appears to be the case this time, because a trade did not happen. It’s a curtain of confusion for me looking
in, as to what’s going on. Walt says
sell Mauer, he is a one year card. He
may be able to get enough post-draft that it is worth it and helps the team go
deep into the playoffs. Or, he may keep
him and still go deep into the playoffs by drafting guys to fill a few holes.
5) Vermont
The cheese heads kept popping up with good players here,
good players there. They have the #6
pitching in the league, and the #6 hitting.
They have a pretty good bullpen, that is their strongest feature. They have good cards at OF, C, and 1B. They will not be a playoff team due to not
having a manager, opening doors for lesser teams to try for it.
6) Arlington
The Aces were ranked #5 in hitting and #7 in pitching. I ranked Chris Davis as the number 2 1B,
behind Goldschmidt. It’s my quirk that I
would love to have a strong hitting 1B-5 if I could. I love those double plays, and how they boost
your team defense for rare plays tremendously where it isn’t always
expected. Davis is a 4. A near monstrous 4 and a 4 is not a bad
thing. Hidden strength is on this team
in the starting pitching position with Colon and Iwakuma going 15zg and
15yz. This is another playoff level team
that will not make the playoffs.
An interesting question for a new manager will be, which one
of these franchises would you rather have?
7) Occoquan
The Ospreys 3rd ranked pitching combined with 9th
ranked hitting earns them a 7th overall ranking. They have the best bullpen in the league
prior to the draft with Uehara, Nathan, Breslow, Jansen, and Lopez all having
ERA’s less than 2.00. The starting
pitching and hitting are the weaknesses.
They have 2 decent starters and two decent bats in Hill and Napoli, but
they have a lot of holes to fill. This
team will have a good chance to make the playoffs with two better teams being
ineligible, and then they are expected to bow out in the first round.
8) Washington
The Senators are also in line to make the playoffs, despite
Bart’s prediction that this team is not going anywhere in 2014. What they have is okay starting pitching, a
not too great bullpen, a fantastic starting catcher in Yadier Molina, and an
okay first baseman. They have above
average draft picks available, so that should help them leap frog over Occoquan
into the 5th playoff spot.
9) Delphi
The Oracles are strong in hitting and weak in pitching. They boast good players at 2B, 3B, and SS in
David Wright, Matt Carpenter, and J.J. Hardy, a SS-9 with 1-5-6-7 power who is
a J-0 with 1/-2 splits. I’d love to have
that. Not a trade offer, just drooling
and coveting. Darvish is a good pickup
in the draft last year, and comes in without a W at 14xy. A couple of nice grade 16 relievers who have
Z’s are on this team. How about that draft? We’ve got lots of fine picks coming this
team’s way. This is another team that
could leapfrog Occoquan into the playoffs.
Nobody knows what’s in George’s plans this year. From what Dwight tells me, not even he knows.
10) Columbia Pike
Even after trading Nathan, Steve still has the best relief
card in the deck in Mr. Crain and two other good bullpen members. The Cubs have two other good cards in Cliff
Lee and Dustin Pedroia. Beyond that,
there’s not much else but really strong draft picks, the highest ranking team
for the early round picks, including the 3rd and 4th pick
overall. I expect two really good
prospects will be taken.
11) Roswell
The Greys don’t have much going on, but they have 2 first
round picks that could be used to build a winning team. They have a #1 starting pitcher who is a 16y,
but not much help in the bullpen. The
hitters are not strong but not terrible, ranked from 4th to 10th
in each position. If our friend Bob
chooses the rebuilding route, this team will settle in at the bottom of the
league. If not, they will be fighting
for a middle spot.
12) Seacoast
Last year’s champs are predicted to go from first to
worst. There are still 3 fantastic
outfielders on this team, but weakness in all other area’s along with a
recognition that it’s time to rebuild and spend a year in purgatory to make up
for the championship doom this team.
Chad recently traded some good but expendable cards over to Larry, which
boosted his draft up from 12th to 9th and took Oakton
down to 12th. I expect Chad
to rebuild and I hope it doesn’t take him longer than this year so that we can
see him in the playoffs again soon.
Summary
I see the three tiers of active teams being:
Having a chance at the plaque:
Oakton
Springfield (if he doesn’t decide to work on his next
dynasty)
Stonehenge
Having a chance at the playoffs:
Sterling
Occoquan
Washington
Delphi
Rebuilding:
Columbia Pike
Roswell
Seacoast
Good luck everyone and have a great year!
